Lunar News Network

Farwell Shuttle Era

I write a blog for a professional association and wrote the following to honor and lament the U.S. manned space program:

 

As you may have heard, the space shuttle Atlantis will launch tomorrow for the last time. This launch will conclude the shuttle program and quite possibly, the U.S. manned space program, at least in the way we have come to think about it. If NASA is ending the shuttle program you would think that a new program with a new space vehicle would be ready to begin, sadly though, that's not the case, as John Glenn points out in his recent criticism of NASA. Up until last year, NASA did have a plan for continuing the American advance into space, it was called the Constellation Program, and it envisioned a fleet of new launch and crew vehicles that would not only send astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS), but also to the Moon to establish a small outpost. This was part of a comprehensive "Vision for Space Exploration" that would have replaced our halting and stumbling expansion into the solar system with a methodical step-by-step plan to move humans permanently into space. Unfortunately, this plan did not mesh well with new political and budget realities and was ended by President Obama.

Part of me likes to think that the American people haven't quite some to terms with the fact that their trailblazing national space program is ending and they will rise up and demand a halt to this sad development. Still waiting...

Of course, it's not true to say that the U.S. manned space program is ending, President Obama has allocated millions of dollars to private companies building the next generation of what he calls a "space taxi service" that will take both civilians and astronauts to low-Earth orbit. SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, Boeing, Orbital Sciences, and Sierra Nevada are among the private companies testing prototypes and hoping to lead the next expansion into space. And even if they are not quite there yet, our astronauts will still be able to get to the ISS on a Soyuz capsule thanks to the Russians (guess we need to stay on their good side!). I wonder though if it was a false choice between a national manned space program and a civilian taxi service? Maybe we could have done both at the same time? And as appealing as a next generation space taxi service sounds to some, it raises the question: When has a taxi service ever led the way in exploration and discovery?

NASA has long-term plans, of course, landing on an asteroid or a Martian moon have been discussed as possible future missions. My fear is that these would be stunt missions and nothing like the methodical plan to get out into space to stay that the Constellation program represented. And in the meantime, an entire generation of astronauts, space scientists, engineers, designers, and contractors are being retired. What happens when that knowledge-base and skill-set is lost? You know, it really is rocket science. I hope that the politicians are including start-up costs into their future budgets because we won't be sending humans beyond low-Earth orbit in a taxi anytime soon.

As we watch shuttle Atlantis soar into space one last time, let's reflect with pride on an American space program that was once the envy and inspiration of the world. Let's be thankful for our astronaut corps and the NASA personnel that made it possible. And, finally, let's hope that the American people will demand of their government a space program that fully reflects our national pride, our goals, and our hopes for a brighter future.

Image Credit: IEEE Spectrum

 

I'm proud of NASA and the amazing legacy that the shuttle program represents and as today's launch proves, NASA still has the right stuff. I hope that we will, in time, again take up the challenge of manned spaceflight as an expression of national will and destiny, and not merely as a budget item that can be eliminated to save a few dollars. I will soon retire this blog as it's clear that the next human to step onto the Moon will not be an American, but I close with hope that even if America sits out a few decades of spaceflight, we have the skill and ingenuity to make up for it...if we choose to.

2010 Year in Review

The year 2010 was the year the dream ended. President Obama submitted a NASA budget that eliminated the ambitious program to return Americans to the Moon and build a scientific outpost there as a first step toward going to Mars and beyond:

President Barack Obama's 2011 budget request has effectively shut down NASA's five-year effort to return astronauts to the moon, leaving the U.S. space agency with lofty goals - but no firm deadlines - to once again send humans beyond Earth orbit. The budget request, released today, would scrap NASA's Constellation program to build the Orion spacecraft and Ares rockets for new manned moon missions ? a $9 billion investment to date. The request calls for $19 billion in funding for NASA in 2011, a slight increase from the $18.3 billion it spent in 2010. The request does, however, pledge extra funding to extend the life of the International Space Station through at least 2020 and offers $6 billion over five years to support commercially built spaceships to launch NASA astronauts into space. The space agency?s three remaining space shuttles are due to retire later this year. 

It is only a slight exaggeration to say that 2010 marked the end of the U.S. manned space program. It's a slight exaggeration because we will still have astronauts and once the final shuttle mission is accomplished and the shuttle program passes into the history books we won't have the capability of sending our astronauts to the ISS or the Moon anytime in the near-future. We will rely on our international partners (Russia) to get our people and supplies to the ISS. President Obama hopes that a new commercial space taxi service will eventually arise that will take up that role, but the days of NASA leading our march into space appears to be over. Those who have built, maintained and piloted the shuttle fleet over many years are now heading into retirement. Given that this really is "rocket science" it's disturbing that the U.S. may be on the verge of sacrificing generations of engineers and scientists, to say nothing of our astronaut corps. The Constellation program could have been supported in tandem with the civilian space effort, it was never a choice of one or the other, but Obama made that choice. So, for at least the next decade America can look forward to a new generation of civilian space taxi providers sending both tourists and astronauts to low-Earth orbit. That will be exciting, no doubt, but it raises one question:

When in history has a taxi service ever led the way in exploration and discovery?

More Water on the Moon

Future historians will surely note that it's one of the great ironies of the era that just as the U.S. ended it's manned space program and any plans to colonize the Moon, scientists conclusively proved that there's more water up there than anyone dared think. 

The End of The Dream

Sorry for the lack of posts, it was either a blizzard of small posts reacting to President Obama's visit to the Kennedy Space Center last week or one final post, so I'm choosing one final post.

It is obvious now that it's over, President Bush's bold Vision for Space Exploration has been replaced with a mirage. You can read President Obama's speech here, and it certainly doesn't sound like a mirage. He is promising more funding for NASA and is repurposing the Orion as an escape pod for the space station. But the fact remains that after the last three remaining shuttle flights, the U.S. won't have our own access to space. There is no replacement for the shuttle, nor is there a next-generation heavy-lift rocket, there is only the vague hope that a new civilian/commercial space taxi industry will arise that will provide access. Of course, that doesn't exist right now, so for the near-term we will rely on the goodwill of Russia to get to the ISS. That's really just unacceptable. Americans will have to ask permission from another country and pay millions of dollars for a ride to the International Space Station that we built and that our shuttles serviced. The bottom line for me is that under the Obama plan there will be no American lunar base in the next twenty or thirty years. President Obama wants NASA to go to an asteroid and orbit Mars, and maybe even land on Mars in the distant future, but no lunar base.

There was a certain logic to going back to the Moon and establishing a base camp. We know that there are things we need to learn, processes and techniques we need to master, if we are ever to live off-world, and the Moon is a far better place to learn than distant Mars. Once humans land on Mars, they better have some experience with off-world living, or their first visit may well end in disaster. The lunar base would have resembled the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station in the Antarctic, with a small scientific staff permanently manning the station and rotating in and out every few years as new teams and supplies arrived. Over time, the knowledge, skills and tools they used on the Moon would be transferred to Mars in a slow and methodical human expansion into our solar system. Instead, we are skipping the Moon and heading toward an asteroid. Yes, an asteroid. We are not going to stay there, build there, or be there all that long, just collect a few rock samples and move on. Obama didn't want to go to the Moon because we've done that before, but what we did before was land and collect rock samples, and that's exactly what he wants to do again only on an asteroid.

Going back to the Moon wasn't a repeat, it was a sequel, and it's just a shame that Obama didn't understand that.

I'll be discontinuing this blog when the domain expires this summer. Until then, I'll comment on any new developments, but I don't really expect that there will be any. Do you?

NASA Veterans Defend Program

Like cowboys riding to the rescue, some well known NASA veterans are hoping that their public support and personal pleas to President Obama will help save the manned spaceflight program:

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U.S. To End Moon Program

It's all over. The U.S. is getting out of the manned space exploration business. The Obama Administration has decided not to fund the Constellation program. NASA will not return to the Moon and go on to Mars and beyond. The dream is dead. From the AP:

The money in the president's budget is not enough to follow through with NASA's Constellation moon landing plan initiated by President George W. Bush. An aide to an elected official who was told of Obama's plans, but who asked that his name not be used because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said Obama is effectively ending the return-to-the-moon effort, something that has already cost $9.1 billion. [...] Obama is adopting the preferred option of a White House-appointed outside panel of experts last year. That concept includes reliance on a commercial spaceship, a space station that functions for five more years than planned, and a "flexible path" for human space exploration. That might mean trips to a nearby asteroid, a Martian moon or a brief visit to the moon, instead of the Bush plan for a moon base by the end of the decade. [...] So far NASA has spent $3.5 billion on Ares I and $3.7 billion on Orion and nearly $2 billion on other moon mission work.

I'm deeply disappointed that a president who finds billions of dollars for trains in California, Illinois and Florida (trains!) can't find billions for the U.S. space program, a proven investment. At a time when other countries have announced (and funded) ambitious manned space programs (and Moon programs) the U.S. is leaving the field. Quitting the game. Didn't Obama just say yesterday that he wasn't a quitter? What a difference a day makes.

Water Discovered on the Moon

NASA announced today that analysis of the LCROSS mission data has revealed the presence of large amounts of water on the Moon. The New York Times headline read "Satellite Found Water on Moon, Researchers Say" and an avalanche of positive news coverage followed. By the end of the day even Google got into the act with a special image on their search page celebrating the discovery. Since the Augustine Committee's gloomy assessment last month of the prospects for a continued manned space program it has seemed that all the momentum for the Vision for Space Exploration had dissipated. Now, thanks to LCROSS and this amazing discovery, I hope that the vision to return to the Moon and stay there will again gain support in political circles. We find money in our national budget for all kinds of things and we spend more on them than we do on NASA, and yet NASA can make sure that humanity isn't just a one-planet wonder. With the world under threat from climate change, asteroid impacts, and the vagaries of Mayan calendar, isn't that worth investing in?

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Ares Soars

Finally some good news from NASA:

For first time since 1981, the rocket that took off Wednesday from a launching pad at the Kennedy Space Center here was not a space shuttle. With a clearing in a partly cloudy sky, the Ares I-X rocket — a prototype of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s next-generation Ares I rocket — zipped off at 11:30 a.m., heading east over the Atlantic Ocean. [...] For the NASA team working on the Constellation program to send astronauts to the Moon and beyond, the flight was a moment of smiles and joy, if not quite vindication. Critics have described the Ares I, which would be the first Constellation rocket to fly, as too expensive and technically flawed.

A successful launch is great news, but this comes at a time when the entire manned space program is under review. I'd like to feel good about this launch but I don't. The political winds are turning against NASA. Where are NASA's supporters in Congress? Who is speaking out for the U.S. space program? It's all about to be shut down, thousands thrown out of work, and expertise and skills lost that can't be quickly recovered. The U.S. is on the verge of sitting out the next stage of the space race just as other countries are starting to ramp up their efforts. I'm at a loss to explain it.

Photo Credit: The New York Times

NASA Succeeds & Fails With Lunar Probes

I hope that someone at NASA realizes that no matter how successful the data analysis portion of the LCROSS experiment proves to be, they really dropped the ball here. NASA finally engaged the public in a meaningful way, built up expectations, and then failed to deliver. When you promise the people a spectacle, you should first deliver a spectacle, and then do the science in the background. I know there seems to be no good answer. If NASA doesn't promote the missions, the public loses interest and politicians sense they can cut funding without repercussions. But if NASA oversells a mission and then fails to deliver on the promise of spectacular imagery, then the public is disappointed and the overall program loses credibility. Let's hope that significant amounts of water vapor will be discovered in the invisible plume to make it all worthwhile.

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Slamming Into The Moon

NASA's LCROSS impactor will slam into a crater on the moon's south pole Friday morning in search of signs of water and this MSNBC video is providing some background for the viewing public:

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Water on the Moon!

What an amazing week this was for lunar news, the headlines screamed: Water on the Moon!! Ok, no, they didn't. I know that reporters really wanted to use that headline, it's catchy, after all, but their editors had to pull them back into more restrained (or worse) headlines, like this one from the AP: It's not lunacy, probes find water in moon dirt. This is a perfect example of how the mainstream news media is challenged by science reporting. They want the short sensational headline and more often than not, science does not fit the required format. Yes, water has been discovered on the Moon. No, it's not pools of standing water, it's not even chunks of ice. The story required a bit of background, some science facts, some explanation, maybe lots of explanation, all before you get to the punch line: this is very good news for the human development of lunar bases. But even there, once we get to that point in the story, we have to provide the usual scientific disclaimer: more study is needed. We don't know how much water is on the moon, exactly where it is, or how concentrated or dispersed it is, and the answers to those questions will take more time, more study, and hopefully some hand-on investigation. So even if we didn't get Water on the Moon!! as a headline, we did get the following:

• MSNBC - Back to the lunar future?
• MSNBC - Moon water findings are a game-changer
• MSNBC - Prospect of moon ice spurs excitement
• New York Times - In Surprise, Moon Shows Signs of Water
  
• Time - Water on the Moon Buoys India's Space Program
• ABC News - Big Splash: How Water on the Moon Was Found
• Space - Moon Water: A Game-Changing Discovery
  

Photo Credit: ABC News

Signs the Vision is Doomed?

This MSNBC video continues the pessimistic note I sounded in my last post, suggesting that the committee reviewing the space program is on the verge of abandoning the Vision for Space Exploration (Moon, Mars & Beyond) due to budget cuts:

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Post-Apollo Blues

 

I've been doing a bit of traveling, so I apologize for the lack of posts. It's not due to a lack of interest, just a lack of time. I was actually out of the country last month during the anniversary of the Apollo landing and I really regretted that at the time. I say "at the time" because I'm not really sure I would have wanted to witness the media overload on all things Apollo when we are apparently at a moment when our country is about to turn against the ambitious plan George W. Bush put into place to return us to the Moon and then go on to Mars. Instead of signing on to this plan and providing for it in the budget (which would have been by far the easiest thing to do in political terms), President Obama created a non-partisan committee to provide recommendations on how NASA should go forward. Early indications are that this panel is charting a course away from the Moon, Mars and Beyond vision, at least according to this report in The New York Times:

A panel examining the future of the United States' human spaceflight program will suggest that the Obama administration may want to skip the part about landing on other worlds. That could, panel members said Thursday, enable the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to send astronauts to more corners of the solar system more quickly while keeping within a limited budget. But it would also eliminate the possibility of astronauts leaving new iconic footprints on the Moon or Mars for a couple of decades.

I can't deny that it makes sense for a new president to ask for an impartial assessment and to carefully examine options before going forward, but students of politics and history know that presidents create special committes and commissions when they need political cover to make unpopular decisions. And since there was little need for political cover to continue with the Vision as originally outlined, I can only conclude that massive changes are afoot and that Change Has Come to NASA, but it won't be anything like we expected. Do I sound pessimistic? I am. I think the writing is on the wall, and the likelihood of Americans standing on the Moon or Mars in the next 20 years has greatly diminished. I'd like very much to be wrong and for the committee to conclude that an ambitious and vigorous human space exploration program is warranted, but I don't see that as the likely outcome. Why can't we just fund the Vision for Space Exploration and call it a bailout? After all, it's worth far more to us in the long-term than cash-for-clunkers.

Apollo 11 Anniversary

As the anniversary of the moon landing approaches, I recommend Space.Com's coverage in which they ponder THE MOON: Then, Now, Next:

Forty years after Apollo 11 astronauts first set foot on the moon on July 20, 1969, SPACE.com examines what we've done since and whether America has the right stuff to get back to the moon by 2020 and reach beyond. In a series of never-before-seen video and interviews, you'll hear from the brave men who went and the people who shape the space industry today.

I like that the coverage is balanced between looking back at the amazing achievement of the lunar landings and looking forward to going back to the Moon and the future of the U.S. space program.

Alternative Lunar Plan Proposed

The panel reviewing NASA's plans to return us to the Moon and then go on to Mars recently heard a proposal from within NASA that would dramatically change the plan. The alternative plan is based on the space shuttle hardware, infrastructure and personnel, and promises a cheaper and faster path to the Moon than the present Constellation program. This AP report provides all the details, but check out the amazingly negative way the report is introduced:

Like a car salesman pushing a luxury vehicle that the customer no longer can afford, NASA has pulled out of its back pocket a deal for a cheaper ride to the moon. It won't be as powerful, and its design is a little dated. Think of it as a base-model Ford station wagon instead of a tricked-out Cadillac Escalade. Officially, the space agency is still on track with a 4-year-old plan to spend $35 billion to build new rockets and return astronauts to the moon in several years. However, a top NASA manager is floating a cut-rate alternative that costs around $6.6 billion. This cheaper option is not as powerful as NASA's current design with its fancy new rockets, the people-carrying Ares I and cargo-lifting Ares V. But the cut-rate plan would still get to the moon.

From what I've read, the alternative plan (the Shannon plan, formally called the Shuttle-Derived Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle) has merit, but making the plan sound like a used car (that could be a lemon) hardly does NASA any favors. At any rate, you can learn more about the alternative plan in this YouTube video: